What do you think about change.
How do you define change, or variable or variable change.
Do you consider the Time = Chnge or something else just think.
We can define the theory of variable change in so many ways-
1. The probability of independent events, like flipping coins or two successive poker deals from different decks, do not depend on each other. So if you have a fair coin, the chance of flipping a head is 0.5 whether the last 50 flips were all heads, all tails or anything in between. The chance of getting pocket Aces is 1/221 whether you got pocket Aces the last two hands in a row, or haven't seen them in a year (assuming perfect shuffling and fair dealing).
However, events can give you information, which changes the probability from your point of view. For example, suppose you think there is a 2% chance a coin has two heads, and a 98% chance it is a fair coin. The chance of flipping a head is either 1 or 0.5, but from your point of view, it is 0.51 (2% x 1 + 98% x 0.5 = 0.51).
If you see it flip 50 heads in a row, you are virtually certain it is the two-headed coin, so you think the chance only 1 in 23 trillion that the next flip will be tails. The coin hasn't changed, it's still either 1 or 0.5, but your estimate of it has been revised.
In the Monte Hall problem, you have either picked the door with the car or not. Your chance of winning is either 1 or 0. However, you don't know that, so you estimate your chance at 1/3. If you know the host will always open a losing door that you did not pick, and he does so, you still estimate you have 1 chance in 3 of winning. But now you know the car must be behind either the door you picked or the other unopened door, since your door is 1/3, the other door must be 2/3 and you should switch if you get the chance
2. What do you think about human psychology, I have great idea to explain it. Can you recall any incident quickly which do you remember. So after getting something in you mind just try to find out why do you remember it. It is only because there was something change which, and that change was not constant it was variable thats why you remember. For example you are going on the road and you go the same place daily by same road and you see an advertisement in the way but you do not pay attention towards it, but next day you find an new advertisement and you say, hey hey it is new and you remember it. Other example you see you face daily in the mirror and you do not recognize the change, and one day something happens to your face say some dark circles on your skin. Then what do you do, generally you apply many types of creams and chemicals.
These theories can be used by marketers to understand the customer's psychology and marketing starts with customers and ends with customers.
